Wohlers Talk

Many years ago, at least one person predicted the use of additive fabrication (AF) to “3D print” household items. If the bread toaster breaks, a new one—or part of one—would be created on the home 3D printer. The convenience and speed would make it compelling.

I disagreed then and I do now. If the toaster breaks, a new one is purchased for $15–20. Even if a person or family owns or has access to a 3D printer, the system would probably not accommodate the type of material needed for the replacement part(s). Also, 3D model data, needed to drive the system, would need to be created or downloaded. This would not be impossible, but few consumers would want to mess with it.

I do believe that home manufacturing will develop in the future and feel more strongly about it now than ever. People that manufacture at home, however, will serve as “providers” that sell to others, primarily on the web. Individuals will see it as a low-risk, low-overhead business opportunity to manufacture from their basement, spare room, garage, or dorm room. They will discover a niche market and serve this market from their home. A few are already doing it.

Case in point: Fabjectory is a one-person company that has been producing models from Second Life, Google SketchUp, and Nintendo Mii for some time. The price for a color model from Fabjectory is typically $50–200. The home-based operation has been written up in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The New York Times, Wired, and other major publications. I am also aware of others here in the U.S. and abroad that are offering part-making services from the comfort of their homes.

The market opportunities are vast. Among them are the production of individualized video game characters, sculptures, corporate gifts, figurines, ornaments, lighting designs, custom furniture, wall hangings, and other home and personal accessories. Add it up and you’re looking at markets that total billions of dollars.

So, don’t be surprised when you begin to see small, specialized manufacturers popping up everywhere. At first, it may appear as though they are operating from a regular business or store front. Upon closer examination, you will find that they are small operations located in homes. And, they will be the manufacturer of the future.

The results of a recent MoldMaking Technology magazine survey (January 2008) show “foreign competition” as the #1 challenge for the moldmaking industry. (Most readers of the magazine are from the U.S.) To many, this is not surprising, given what has been published on the subject over the past few years. Moldmakers, like many in the product development and manufacturing business, are afraid that the “bleeding” will continue.

What can be done to preserve and even grow manufacturing in the U.S.? One idea is to concentrate on the strengths of our nation and one of them is innovation. People in the U.S. have a wealth of ideas for new products. However, the risk of introducing a new product, or convincing investors to support it, can be daunting. Launching a new product can cost a staggering amount, so companies are usually very cautious when conceiving and rolling out something new.

New methods of manufacturing, such as additive fabrication (AF), provide the opportunity to introduce a new product—or parts that go into one—at a surprisingly low cost. AF does not require any tooling, so this removes one of the biggest costs, both in time and money. This does not help moldmakers, but it sure presents some interesting possibilities for those in the product development business. An example is Janne Kyttanen of Freedom of Creation. He and his company are able to design some consumer products in a day or two and begin to manufacture them by plastic laser sintering the following day.

With innovation as a strength, I predict that many designers, engineers, students, and others will use modern software tools to create products that before were too difficult, expensive, and risky to manufacture. They will create small quantities to test the market to determine whether a demand exists for what they’ve developed. And, they can make changes and improvements along the way without much additional cost. As the custom manufacturing megatrend comes into full swing, those embracing AF for part production will be poised to ride this potentially large and lucrative wave.

Self-replicating machines have been a topic of futurists and science fiction writers. Nanotechnology shows some promise for nanoscale assembly, although practical applications of this may be many years into the future, if ever. A professor at the University of Bath in England launched an ambitious open source project a few years ago that aims to produce a macroscale self-replicating machine by additive fabrication (AF), although little evidence of actual self-replication has been demonstrated thus far.

Today, two companies offer machines that are beginning to build themselves. One year ago, EOS announced that laser sintering was used to produce 23 parts on its Formiga P 100 laser sintering system. Among the parts being produced are the filler hopper for the plastic powder, a switch cover, and pieces for a pyrometer. Last month at EuroMold 2007, Stratasys announced that fused deposition modeling (FDM) was used to manufacture 32 parts for its new FDM 900mc system. Some of the parts include the touch screen bezel, door latch filler, pull handles, status tower base, and cable strain relief bracket.

As the capabilities and materials for these machines improve, expect the number of parts that they build for themselves to increase. Will they ever be capable of producing themselves entirely? Maybe someday, but not until systems can process a very wide range of materials, including plastics, composites, and metals. Today’s machines can process plastics/composites or metals, but not both. For a long time into the future, standard parts, such as motors, gears, bearings, belts, wires, printed circuit boards, switches, fasteners, and sheet metal, will be purchased and assembled the way they have in the past.

During a recent trip to Africa, professor Deon de Beer of Central University of Technology, Free State (Bloemfontein, South Africa) and I spoke to a group of nearly 100 kids. Most were high school age, along with a number of parents and teachers, all from a township called Soshanguve, located about 45 km (28 miles) north of Pretoria. The group convened that day to learn about opportunities and careers in engineering and manufacturing, and the vast potential of additive fabrication (AF) technology.

The two-hour youth awareness program was held at one of seven Fab Labs in South Africa. A Fab Lab is a hands-on prototyping facility targeted at young people in under-served communities. The concept grew out of the Center for Bits and Atoms at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. According to MIT, Fab Labs offer innovative solutions to common problems and provide thriving incubators for local micro-businesses. The local communities themselves foster innovation that can lead to sustainable solutions. My experience with Fab Labs and developing communities is limited, yet I could immediately see the positive impact that they could have.

I really did not know what to expect going into the presentation. The local area experienced a power outage just before we arrived, so we were unable to use the data projector and microphone/speaker system. The program was delayed as we waited for the power to return, but it did not and the “show” had to go on. Dr. de Beer and I had prepared many images and animations to explain the benefits and applications of AF, so we were faced with using whatever we could quickly grab to explain advanced methods of rapid product development and why they might be important to the group.

Our presentations generated more than an hour of questions, many of them stimulating. A young woman asked, “I want to start a business. What advice do you have for me?” I asked what she liked to do and where she saw herself in the future. She responded by saying, “I’d like to be an engineer.” I explained that after formal education, she may want to consider contract engineering as a career and could potentially serve a wide range of companies in South Africa. I said that with some creativity and ambition, it’s possible to rise to surprising heights. It may take some time to get started, but once you do—and if you deliver quality work—jobs will come to you by word of mouth.

Another question, this time from a young man: “What are the secrets to success?” I explained that I’ve observed many successful people and their success is not a secret. You’ve got to work hard, get a good education, make many friends, and help others in need. It is important that you are honest in everything you do, have integrity, be open to new ideas, and take risks, but don’t gamble. And, if you really enjoy what you do, you won’t view it as work.

A pediatrician in the audience, who I later met, asked an interesting and challenging question. She explained that most people go through school in route to securing a job to earn money so that they can buy products, most of which are produced outside of South Africa. She asked, “What can be done in schools to change this mindset so that teachers and students consider how they might create products for themselves?” I really had not given it much thought until then and responded by saying that it begins at an early age. I believe it’s important to give kids the opportunity to be inventive by letting them play with modeling clay, 3D puzzles, Lego products, building blocks, and so on. As they get older, encourage them to use 3D content creation software, such as Cosmic Blobs and SketchUp.

The questions continued, but time ran out. I could tell that many of these kids were motivated and hungry for ideas and information. Given a little guidance, some encouragement, and access to tools, I’m certain that they will produce some impressive and unexpected results. They are the future of South Africa and I felt lucky to be a part of this special day.

Historically, additive fabrication (AF) has been used for applications such as modeling, prototyping, and making patterns for silicone rubber molds. In recent years, a growing number of companies have used it for custom and replacement part manufacturing, short-run production, and even series production. Research by Wohlers Associates shows that “rapid manufacturing” using AF has grown from 3.9% in 2003 to 11.7% in 2007.

As this trend continues, we can expect to see a much wider range of audiences embrace AF for the manufacture of almost everything imaginable. This activity will be supported by AF systems that dip down to $5,000 in price. When this occurs next year, these compact manufacturing machines will show up in unexpected places. Individuals operating from a spare room in their homes will manufacture one-off parts and finished products for a broad spectrum of customers.

Growing interest in AF could lead to anyone designing anything and then having it manufactured in an affordable way for the first time. Of course, there will be limitations in size, dimensional accuracy, and material options, especially with the inexpensive systems. The biggest limitation of all will be the abilities of the people doing the design. Most consumers do not have the basic knowledge and skills to create an interesting or useful product. What’s more, the average consumer has little interest in creating new designs, let alone the desire to learn how to use design software.

Even so, entrepreneurs will capitalize on a wealth of opportunities presented by low-cost AF. As they better understand the design deficiencies among the population, they will develop approaches to personalized design and manufacturing with specific limits built into the process. Nike’s nikeid.com provides a glimpse of how this might be possible. This beautifully created website permits you to create a custom pair of shoes quickly and affordably. Within a few minutes, you can personalize shoes using a range of interesting colors and you can add a school mascot and two-digit initials to the shoes.

In the future, many websites will appear that offer libraries of objects. An individual might select a vintage car, for example, from a library of automobiles. This person will be given the opportunity to select the style of wheels, headlights, front grill, hood ornament, and color, and indicate whether it is a convertible or hardtop. The site will allow you to make other design changes, such as altering the curve of a fender, but within preset limits. Making these kinds of changes would make the model car truly custom. A few clicks later, your collectable will be in the queue for production and shipment.

Indeed, AF will be used to produce custom products by a wide range of consumers. As the price of these “personal factories” drop, the idea will expand into new businesses that may be difficult to fathom. Most consumers cannot design, so tools will become available to assist them with the process of creating one-of-a-kind products.

Note: The international conference titled The Custom Manufacturing MegaTrend: Where China and the West Fit In will be held on December 7 at EuroMold 2007 in Frankfurt, Germany.

Many types of products that are made and sold today will be designed and manufactured similarly in the future. Conventional methods of molding, casting, and stamping of high volumes of parts will continue. However, a new wave of designs that before were impractical or too risky to produce by traditional means is beginning to emerge. It is being made possible with advances in additive fabrication techniques and materials, coupled with artistic and engineering creativity of those who are good at modeling new ideas with SolidWorks, Rhino, and other CAD and design products.

Already, we’re seeing what’s possible. One of the best examples is the .MGX collection from Materialise. Many years ago, no company in their right mind would have attempted to offer such a wide range of unusual and difficult to manufacture products. With additive fabrication, it is possible to produce wild and complex shapes. What’s more, companies can manufacture them on demand when the order is received. The inventory consists of a library of solid models stored as bits and bytes.

If the manufacturer or customer would like to introduce a change to a design, the cost of doing so is negligible. Contrast this with products that are produced from tooling. A change usually costs thousands of dollars and weeks or months of time. It wasn’t until additive fabrication became an option that one-off custom or personalized manufacturing became affordable and attractive.

In the future, expect to see a staggering range of new and distinctive products. Many will come from people working at home, as well as from design-savvy students. With advances in additive processes, expect the development of custom jewelry, collectables such as action and sports figures and bobble heads, and personalized awards, gifts, and corporate give-aways. In the world of professional design, anticipate custom designs for business jet interiors, high-end automobiles, and motorcycles.

Brace yourself for new ways of designing and manufacturing in the future. As the late Larry Rhoades once said, “This revolution will enable people to live where they’d like and produce what they need locally.” Rhoades envisioned a factory in the home, or at least in the neighborhood, where people will pay for the plans, not the product. I agree that it will happen. In the future, millions of 3D models of all types will be produced with products such as Cosmic Blobs, Spore, and SketchUp, as well as new generation design and 3D content creation tools.

There is more than one way to anticipate the future. In the area of additive fabrication, one can study trend lines to gauge the interest in machines, materials, applications, and industries. Another way is to review the most interesting developments among the leading academic researchers from around the world. Not all ideas come from academia, but a respectable share does. I recall Geoff Smith-Moritz, former editor of the Rapid Prototyping Report newsletter, saying that he attended the Solid Freeform Fabrication Symposium in Austin, Texas to gain a sense of what might develop in the future.

Geoff was right. When I attended the symposium the first time, I was impressed by the quality and quantity of research that was presented. Many of those in attendance know that a high percentage—maybe 98%—of what is shared will never develop or lead to anything more than a technical paper or thesis. However, if you can locate the 2% that has good potential for developing into something that is commercially viable, the time spent at the conference is unquestionably worthwhile.

The challenge is to recognize the 2% when it’s mixed in with the other 98%. What’s more, no one knows for certain what will lead to a successful product or service. However, if one considers the trends that are underway, and has some insight, it’s not impossible to gain some sense of the future. The symposium, organized each year by the University of Texas at Austin, provides this opportunity like no other. The 18th symposium begins on Monday and I’m hoping that it will provide the quality of research results that it has in the past. If it does, and I expect it will, it will be worth enduring the heat and humidity of Texas in August.

This was the title of an article authored by Guy Sorman and published in the April 20, 2007 issue of the Wall Street Journal. Sorman lived in China in 2005 and part of 2006. He spent time not only in the cities where striking expansion is underway, but also in the countryside and small villages where few Westerners go. He spoke with countless Communist Party officials, dissidents, and ordinary people. His conclusion: the 21st century will not belong to the Chinese.

Sorman stated that an estimated 200 million in China are increasingly enjoying a middle-class standard of living. The remaining one billion, though, are among the most underprivileged and oppressed in the world. The Party is no longer totalitarian, but it remains cruel and unfair.

Sorman goes on to discuss China’s many problems, including hundreds of thousands dying from AIDS. Meanwhile, an explosion of revolts is occurring in the vast countryside. The government estimates 60,000 of them per year, but some experts believe that it’s closer to 150,000 and rising. Moving to a city is a possible way out for some Chinese, but finding a permanent job can be difficult. The government requires many types of permits and the only way to obtain them is to bribe the bureaucrats.

Other problems: China’s one-child policy subjects women to shocking brutality. Unemployment may be closer to 20% than the officially recognized 3.5%.

China’s challenges are much deeper and wider than what many of us are led to believe, according to Sorman. Notable economic growth is underway in China, but it may pale in comparison to the overwhelming difficulties faced by this developing country.

Speed Part (Sweden) has developed a process called Selective Mask Sintering that sinters an entire layer of plastic powder at once. The company uses glass-filled nylon powder, an infrared lamp, and masks to produce each layer. The masks are generated using a Xerox photocopying process and represent the inverse of the cross sections being produced. The time to produce a layer is 10-20 seconds, which is fast. Using an IR lamp instead of a laser and galvanometer significantly reduces cost. The current system builds parts up to 300 x 210 x 500 mm (11.8 x 8.3 x 19.7 inches) and sells for €149,000 (~$198,000). Parts from the system are impressive.

Loughborough University (England) is also working on a layer-at-once plastic sintering process. It is called High Speed Sintering and it jets dark liquid (likely black ink) onto the surface of white nylon powder. The darkened regions represent the cross section that is to be sintered. The surface is then exposed to IR radiation. The dark regions are sintered because they absorb much more heat than the white regions, which is a clever approach.

As these processes are refined, they could impact the sales of laser sintering machines due to their potential speed and cost advantages. Loughborough University has not yet commercialized its process, but Speed Part sold its first three systems last year. It will be interesting to watch the development of these two systems. 

Making parts additively from powder metal is taking off. Morris Technologies of Cincinnati, Ohio is now running six EOSINT M machines from EOS of Germany. The machines produce solid metal parts by melting powder with a laser, layer by layer. To date, the company has produced an estimated 8,000 parts. More than 95% of them are used in prototypes and final products, while less than 5% are used as inserts for tooling. Morris is running DirectMetal 20 (a proprietary bronze-based metal), 17-4 stainless steel, and cobalt-chrome.

Arcam and its customers are also making good progress. Arcam’s Electron Beam Melting (EBM) produces parts in titanium alloy and cobalt-chrome using an electron beam instead of a laser to melt layers of powder. The company sold 15 EBM systems last year, compared to six the year before. Magnus Rene, CEO of Sweden-based Arcam, said that its customers are using the process extensively for part manufacturing. About 30% of the parts are used for custom and short run production, while 50% are used for mainstream manufacturing.

In the future, expect to see a growing number of metal parts from additive fabrication, especially ones that are relatively small and complex in shape. Most will be parts that would normally be produced by casting or CNC machining, or ones that would be impossible to build any other way.