Wohlers Talk

Recent trips to China have taught me a lot about the country’s plans for 3D printing. The central government, as well as provinces and cities, are planning to invest hundreds of millions of dollars into 3D printing over the next several years. One 500-employee Chinese company, with assistance from a city and provincial government, is expected to invest about $120 million over the next three years.

Another company, Haier, is going to enter the 3D printing area, according to a May 31, 2013 article published by China Daily Europe. With 80,000 employees, Haier is the world’s largest supplier of white goods. The company also manufactures computers, televisions, air conditioners, and many other household products. Xinqi Zhang, mayor of Qingdao (Haier’s headquarters location), said that the 3D printing industry needs the support of government due to the cost of implementing the technology. Zhang did not disclose the amount that Haier is planning to invest.

The Asian Manufacturing Association (AMA), a Beijing organization, launched the World 3D Printing Technology Alliance last week. Its primary purpose is to promote industrial cooperation within the 3D printing industry. Jun Luo, AMA’s CEO, believes revenues from 3D printing products and services in China will reach $1.6 billion in three years, making it the world’s largest market for 3D printing. According to Wohlers Report 2013, the worldwide 3D printing market in 2012 was $2.2 billion, so it would be difficult for China to grow so large in such a short time. AMA plans to establish 10 innovation institutes on 3D printing in China, with initial funding of $3.3 million per institute.

AMA was the organizer of last week’s 2013 World 3D Printing Technology Industry Conference in Beijing. More than 600 very enthusiastic people attended the two-day event, including 100 members of the media. China Daily and CCTV, China’s predominant state television broadcaster, were present. Associate consultant Tim Caffrey and I attended, and we have rarely seen the level of interest in 3D printing that we saw last week. Major organizations were in attendance and television cameras and reporters were nearly everywhere. China as a country wants to see 3D printing progress to a new level and it is determined to be very central to it all.

This new market study was published earlier this week, marking the 18th consecutive year of its publication. The report focuses on new 3D printing and additive manufacturing (terms we use interchangeably) applications, developments, and trends worldwide. The report was produced with help from 70 co-authors in 21 countries, as well as 74 service providers and 31 system manufacturers from around the world. Principal co-author and associate consultant Tim Caffrey and I are grateful for the kind support from so many experts and organizations that supported this large effort.

Wohlers Report 2013 provides an in-depth look at market forces, competitive products and services, and industry growth. According to our research for the report, the market for products and services in 2012 grew 28.6% (CAGR) to $2.204 billion. This is up from $1.714 billion in 2011, when it grew 29.4%. The average annual growth (CAGR) of the industry over the past 25 years is an impressive 25.4%. The CAGR is 27.4% over the past three years (2010–2012).

Growth of the low-cost (under $5,000) “personal” 3D printer market segment averaged 346% each year from 2008 through 2011. In 2012, the increase cooled significantly to an estimated 46.3%, according to our research for Wohlers Report 2013. Most of these machines are being sold to hobbyists, do-it-yourselfers, engineering students, and secondary and postsecondary educational institutions.

The industry is expected to continue strong double-digit growth over the next several years. By 2017, we believe that the sale of 3D-printing products and services will approach $6 billion worldwide. By 2021, we forecast growth to reach $10.8 billion. It took the 3D printing industry 20 years to grow to $1 billion in size. In five additional years, the industry generated its second $1 billion. It is expected to double again, to $4 billion, in 2015.

Our preparation for the publication of Wohlers Report 2013 revealed some interesting data: 16 companies in Europe, 7 in China, 5 in the U.S., and 2 in Japan now manufacture and sell professional-grade, industrial additive manufacturing (AM) and 3D printing systems. (We use the two terms interchangeably.) This is a dramatic change from a decade ago when the mix was 10 in the U.S., 7 in Europe, 7 in Japan, and 3 in China.

Is the U.S. losing its edge in AM? This data on AM systems manufacturing and sales suggests that it is. What’s more, all of the metal powder bed fusion systems are manufactured outside the U.S. Seven manufacturers of these systems are in Europe and two are in China. Together, China, Singapore, many countries in Europe, and even South Africa, have committed hundreds of millions of dollars in AM development and commercialization over the next few years.

The U.S. continues to lead the world with the largest installed base of AM users. When Wohlers Report 2013 becomes available soon, it will report that 38% of all industrial AM installations are in the U.S. Japan is second with 9.7%, followed by Germany with 9.4% and China with 8.7%. With such a large number of systems, one could argue that the U.S. has the most experience, expertise, and know-how in AM.

The National Additive Manufacturing Innovation Institute (NAMII) was launched last year by the White House with the support of several agencies, including the Department of Defense. This initiative seeks to accelerate the position of the U.S. in the development and use of AM technology. It will not be easy, given what organizations in China and other regions of the world have planned.

My recommendation to key leaders in the U.S. is to focus on the big picture with big goals, such as the development of metal-based powder bed fusion systems and other advanced AM system technology. Market forces and competitive pressures will take care of the smaller challenges and incremental technology improvements.

This is the name of an event that was launched this week at the Javits Convention Center in New York. I attended and was very impressed on a number of levels. First, I was surprised to learn that about 3,000 attended the two-day conference and exposition. I cannot remember attending a first-time event that has attracted more a few hundred people. Some events have been around for 10, even 20 years, and still draw fewer than 2,000 people.

Second, I was pleased at how well it was organized. WebMediaBrands, a publicly-traded company led by Alan Meckler, PhD, is the group behind it. The company clearly knows what it takes to organize and run events. Every detail, down to the refreshments, was handled expertly. Some might consider Meckler a trade show genius. In 1990, he created a newsletter called Internet World, the first of its kind. It led to the launch of the Internet World trade shows, which were the fastest growing in trade show history. His company, Mecklermedia Corp., was subsequently acquired by Penton Media in 1998 for $274 million in cash.

Seeing an audience of 1,000+ is a speaker’s dream come true. That’s what I saw when walking onto the stage early Tuesday morning. The attendees were a mix of NY investors, analysts, startup companies, and corporations of all types. Most were more interested in business opportunities in 3D printing than in the technology itself. What struck me most about the audience was their amazing appetite for information on the subject. They behaved like people that hadn’t eaten in days.

WebMediaBrands has scheduled Inside 3D Printing events for July 10-11 in Chicago, Illinois, September 17-18 in San Jose, California, October 2-3 in Singapore, and March 25-26, 2014 in Munich, Germany. The event returns to the Javits Convention Center in New York April 3-4, 2014. It’s clear that Meckler sees a window of opportunity, similar to the Internet shows of the early 1990s. If these additional events follow the formula used for this first event, they stand a good chance of success.

As time passes, my appreciation for what my father taught me strengthens. He was a successful building contractor, so I was surrounded by tools, materials, and opportunities to make things. And, I took advantage of it. He taught me the right and wrong ways to use tools, the meaning of form, fit, and function, and the importance of precision. He had an eye for quality, especially when making hardwood cabinets and fine furniture. My dad could build almost anything out of wood or metal, so I learned from one of the best, while gaining precious hands-on experience. This helped establish a foundation of understanding and know-how that I’ve enjoyed for more than 35 years.

After graduating from high school and going to the University of Nebraska at Kearney, I worked for another building contractor for four years. This work helped pay the bills and get me through the four-year program. Without the previous experience, I probably would have been flipping burgers or bar tending. I was lucky enough to learn even more during this period as I used my hands and head.

In recent years, most of my time has been spent in the office, with travel, snow skiing, hiking, biking, and other recreational and family activities. Maybe someday, I will set up a proper shop with space and tools. In the meantime, I would not trade my hands-on experience for anything.

Children growing up on farms and in rural areas get their hands dirty and learn how to fix things—something that does not happen as much in cities. As urbanization continues around the world, fewer young people are given the chance to learn how to work with tools and materials. For this reason, I’m happy to watch the recent maker movement unfold. Hacker and maker spaces are popping up in many communities here in the U.S. and elsewhere. The Shanghai Government Technology Committee (Shanghai, China), for example, initiated the launch of 100 community hacker spaces and “innovation houses” more than a year ago.

For communities and countries to prosper, it’s important for them to create products of value from materials of much lower value. This helps to create a thriving economy. My father indirectly taught me this, although I didn’t quite get it at the time. Service industries are important, but they only move money from one pocket to another. Making stuff creates wealth and prosperity—something I value more now than ever. Thanks, Dad.

I spent three days in China last week and it was one of the most interesting trips in a long time. It was my fifth visit to the country, and I found that change continues in a big way. I spent time in Hefei, Anqing, and Huaining—all in the Anhui Province, home to 67 million people. The three cities are relatively close to one another and located about 500 km (310 miles) west of Shanghai. Hefei to Shanghai is one hour by jet, three hours by high-speed train, and five hours by car.

Hefei has a population of more than 7.5 million and is the capital of the Anhui Province. About 500 million people live within a 500-km radius of Hefei, and the area represents 48% of China’s gross domestic product, so it is a very important region to the country. Hefei’s 2012 GDP was RMB 416 billion ($67.1 billion), which is a 13.6% increase over 2011. A new international airport, with non-stop service to New York and Frankfurt, will open near Hefei at the end of May.

I was especially impressed by the construction of high rise apartment complexes. Clusters of 20 or more buildings are going up about everywhere you look. I doubt more than five minutes passed between seeing a new group of them when traveling by train from Hefei to Shanghai. The expansion is nothing short of astounding.

Urbanization is occurring at a rapid pace. At the end of last year, 52.6% of China’s people lived in urban areas, up from 26% in 1990, according to Wikipedia. A Chinese government official told me that about 10% of the entire population of China (135 million) would move from rural areas to urban communities over the next several years.

China’s success in manufacturing has created tremendous wealth in the country and this has led to much of the development in real estate. When I visited Beijing in 1998, the streets were filled with bicycles. Now, they are filled with trucks and cars, including many expensive European brands. You will see some bikes and three-wheel vehicles, still without lights or reflectors at night, but they are disappearing. Meanwhile, clusters of high rises are covering the landscape and I’ve not seen development like it anywhere else.

I had the privilege of attending a special series of meetings involving companies from Canada’s aerospace industry. Bell Helicopter, Bombardier, and Pratt & Whitney Canada are collaborating with the support of the Consortium for Research and Innovation in Aerospace in Québec (CRIAQ) to evaluate opportunities in additive manufacturing. CRIAQ is a government-supported organization with a mission to increase the competitiveness of the Canadian aerospace industry. In its 10 years of operation, it has managed a portfolio of 142 research projects valued at $124 million.

Last Thursday, CRIAQ convened more than 120 people, mostly from the Canadian aerospace industry in Montreal, to learn more about the current state and future potential of additive manufacturing. The day involved small group meetings, one-on-one discussions, and a keynote presentation that dove into the prospects and challenges offered by AM. I was impressed by the level of interest and enthusiasm by the group. By consensus, the companies chose AM as an area of focus because of its potential for manufacturing aircraft parts.

Credit goes to Dr. Clément Fortin, president and CEO of CRIAQ, for bringing together key managers and executives from these companies. I have not seen this kind of collaboration and excitement in some time. They are currently evaluating options for research and development and are determined to forge a path that will benefit their companies and the Canadian aerospace industry. It is the kind of interest and determination I saw in the early years of additive manufacturing among major corporations in the U.S.

Will the effort succeed? I expect it will. At the very least, they will learn a great deal from the work. It looks like it is bringing together many of the right people and they are asking many of the right questions. They can benefit from the more than two decades of development in AM. Most of that time has been spent on prototyping applications, so these companies and several universities in the Montreal area are hoping to help take AM to the next level. Given what I learned this week, there’s a good chance they will be instrumental in advancing the development and application of AM technology, whether it is in new materials, processes, design innovation, or something else.

One Second After is about electromagnetic pulse (EMP), a weapon that could make all others pale in comparison. According to author William Forstchen and others, EMP could devastate a large geographic region, even the entire USA.

EMP is created from a burst of electromagnetic radiation, usually from a high-energy explosion, such as a nuclear bomb. When the explosion occurs over a region, EMP causes all computers, computer-controlled machines and devices, and other products that include solid state electronics to fail. This means cars stop on roads and highways, planes fall out of the sky, and all electricity and communications come to an immediate halt.

One Second After is fictional, but it is based on what could potentially occur if a nation does not take the necessary precautions. Forstchen believes the USA is vulnerable to an EMP attack, and he laid out in vivid detail the possible consequences. The story is set in a small town in North Carolina where a man fights to save his family. The detail is gripping.

EMP has been discussed by Congress and the Pentagon. Politician Newt Gingrich discussed the threat in the book’s Foreword. The Wall Street Journal cautioned that it could shatter the USA. I know little about EMP, except for what I learned in this book, but it sounds very serious. I am hopeful that our national leaders and experts are taking the necessary steps to prevent an EMP disaster.

One Second After is incredibly interesting and engaging, and I highly recommend it.

If you watched the 55th Grammy Awards one week ago, you saw the alternative rock band named Fun (stylized as fun.) perform live. I have become a fan of this band, a group that less than one year ago was playing in front of small audiences. In April 2012, Fun was at the Fort Collins Aggie Theater, a music venue that holds 650 people. The cost to see them: $15. A week ago, they performed in front of 28 million. The band took home two Grammy Awards, including Best New Artist, from six nominations.

I was lucky to see Fun live on December 13, 2012 in Broomfield, Colorado, near Denver. The arena holds 6,500 people, making it the largest audience for Fun, at the time. Our daughter and her friend allowed me to join them at the concert, something that would have been difficult for me to do when I was her age. The music and performance were excellent! It was band’s final performance of 2012.

If you have not seen or heard Fun, it’s not hard to find video clips of them at YouTube. One that stands out is a special acoustic version of We Are Young, a composition that won the Grammy for Song of the Year. Janelle Monáe joins lead singer Nate Ruess in some of the best vocals and music I’ve heard in years by any group or musician.

Yesterday, I tried to buy tickets for an August 2013 Fun concert at Red Rocks, a spectacular outdoor amphitheater on the west edge of Denver. My only time at Red Rocks was a short day visit in 1976. I have always wanted to attend a concert there, but it may not happen in August. I was unable to secure tickets, even though I tried the minute they went on sale. This is an indication of how far the band has come in such a short time.

I attended SolidWorks World 2013 last week in Orlando, Florida, and it was another excellent event. About 4,500 people were in attendance. For me, two of the highlights were presentations by Vijay Kumar, an engineering professor at the University of Pennsylvania, and Elias Knubben, head of Corporate Bionic Projects at Festo.

Kumar shared the impressive work by him and his students. They have designed flying robots that are equipped with sensors and other devices that give them some intelligence. The aircraft, which can fit in the palm of a hand, can fly into buildings and tight places and gather information using small cameras. A likely application is search and rescue after a natural disaster. Another is going into areas where enemies and other threats may exist. Swarms of robots can fly in formation and avoid collision with one another—something I found particularly interesting.

Knubben of Festo showed some extraordinary parts and products, such as robot grippers made by laser sintering, a popular method of additive manufacturing. The gripper itself does not look all that interesting, until it is used. When instructed, the gripper flexes and wraps itself around an object, such as a piece of fruit, before picking it up. Knubben was kind enough to give the gripper to me and I found the design surprisingly simple, but effective.

Knubben’s team at Festo also designed a large bionic bird, called SmartBird, and it flies by flapping its wings. Knubben had the bird with him on stage. When it started to flap its wings, he gently flung it into the air and it began to fly. SmartBird circled the ballroom a couple times before landing in Knubben’s hands. I had never seen anything like it. Similar to Kumar’s small aircraft, many parts of the bird were designed with SolidWorks and produced by laser sintering.

Attending SolidWorks World was again worthwhile. If you want to get an update on the latest in SolidWorks software, applications, and company, it is the event to attend. The morning speakers are usually very good, although no celebrities made appearances this year. The exhibits are also worth some time. SolidWorks World 2014 is January 26-29 in San Diego, California.