Wohlers Talk

When asked if I’d come to Australia in June 2010, I said Yes. The plan was to conduct a series of conferences, workshops, and company presentations in Melbourne, Adelaide, Sydney, and Brisbane. The tenth is on Monday here in Brisbane. By the end of that day, I will have had the privilege of presenting the “Factory of the Future” to nearly 600 engineering and manufacturing professionals from across the country.

I underestimated how demanding it would be. The “road show” began last Monday—the day after I arrived. Rest is essential when traveling to any part of the world and, thankfully, I’m getting some this weekend.

The effort began with Simon Marriott, founder and managing director of Formero (formerly ARRK Australia), who asked if I would partner with him to offer the series. The company’s headquarters are in Melbourne, with operations in the other three cities. Formero has a long history of using additive manufacturing (AM) technology for modeling and prototyping applications. Simon understands the potential of applying it to end-use part production and fully expects to help develop its use for this application throughout this distant but advanced and fascinating country.

Yesterday was one of the most interesting days of all. It began with an early morning car ride from the hotel to Sky News television studios in Sydney. I was supposed to be interviewed the previous day, but it was canceled due to nearly non-stop coverage of Australia’s first woman prime minister, Julia Gillard. With such big news, Simon and I knew the odds of a major television network covering the future of manufacturing in Australia had declined dramatically. It turned out that you can only repeat the same news so much and an appetite developed for something else. We were it.

Due to circumstances beyond our control, we arrived nearly 25 minutes late. After quickly signing in, I was escorted to the “nerve center” of the studios where two live broadcasts were underway. Within a couple minutes, I was sitting in between two news reporters. No time for makeup or a dry run. We hardly had time for introductions. News reporter Carson Scott said, “It’s a shame you don’t have photographs or something to show what we’re talking about.” I told him I had a few example parts. We had about 60 seconds to retrieve them from my case. Many questions later, the interview was over. It was live and broadcast nationwide on Sky News, which I did not know 10 minutes prior to my arrival. So much for having the option of editting out the bad stuff.

I trust the television broadcast, coupled with the series of presentations, will help introduce a few new ideas on how additive manufacturing can help advance product development and innovation in Australia. The interest and feedback thus far have been tremendous. Thanks to Simon Marriott and Formero for this exciting initiative. I hope the individuals and organizations across the country will benefit and take AM technology to the next level.

The additive manufacturing industry’s first CEO Summit was held on May 19, 2010 in Anaheim, California. It coincided with the RAPID 2010 and 3D Imaging Conference & Exposition. The Summit was originally scheduled to be held on April 21 in Leuven, Belgium at the Materialise World Conference and Visionary Summit on Additive Manufacturing. Dust clouds from the Iceland volcano prevented most CEOs and others from traveling to Belgium, so it was postponed until last week.

The purpose of the meeting was to brainstorm ways in which the major stakeholders in the additive manufacturing industry could create greater awareness of the technology and collectively expand the market. The initial consensus was to explore the possibility of securing a world-class public relations agency that could represent the industry.

I truly hope that this event marks the first in a series of meetings where top managers work together, at some level, to expand the market. For many years, these companies have competed, some aggressively, but have done little to cooperate. I believe they can do both.

Among those in attendance were CEOs from Arcam, Envisiontec, EOS, Stratasys, 3D Systems, and Z Corp. Wilfried Vancraen, managing director and chief executive officer of Materialise, organized the meeting and led the discussions.

I am relieved to have published Wohlers Report 2010, our annual industry report on additive manufacturing (AM). This edition marks the 15th consecutive year to publish the report. I’d be lying if I said it is getting easier to produce each year, because it’s not. From January until very recently, many people from around the world gave a great deal of time and energy toward the creation of this 250-page publication.

Fifty-four co-authors wrote sections of the report. Some wrote a page or two, while others accepted responsibility for considerably more. I am especially thankful to Bill Beaver of York Technical College, Ping Fu of Geomagic, Ismail Fidan of Tennessee Tech University, Tim Gornet of the University of Louisville, Tom Mueller of Express Pattern, Michael Siemer of Mydea Technologies, and the teams at Loughborough University, the University of Texas at El Paso, and Utah State University. All 54 contributors are named here.

I’m also appreciative of the 64 service providers and 33 system manufacturers that provided information, much of which is considered confidential. I am grateful for their trust and understanding of how the data is used to create composite totals on the current state of the industry. These totals allow us to produce charts and graphs that show overall trends and where the industry is headed.

My sincere thanks to all of these individuals and organizations. Without their help year after year, the report would not provide the degree of qualitative or quantitative analysis that we believe is important for any industry to better understand itself and advance to the next level.

Old habits die slowly. Case in point: Transitioning to the term “additive manufacturing.” That’s now the official name of what some refer to as rapid prototyping, freeform fabrication, and a host of other names. Additive manufacturing (AM) is the official name …. according to who? ASTM International F42 Committee on Additive Manufacturing Technologies. The group put a lot of thought into it, first selecting AM as the favorite for the name of the committee. It then carefully defined it. The term was not my first choice, but I made the decision to accept, use, and encourage others to use the term, which was decided by consensus—a standards-making process that ASTM has refined over the past 100 years. I decided that if scores of professionals across four continents can agree on it, the term should hold weight and be take seriously.

Defining AM required input, changes, constructive argument, more changes, etc., etc. Eventually, the members of F42 voted on and approved the following:

                       Additive manufacturing (AM), n—process of joining materials
                       to make objects from 3D model data, usually layer upon layer,
                       as opposed to subtractive manufacturing methodologies.
                       Synonyms: additive fabrication, additive processes, additive
                       techniques, additive layer manufacturing, layer manufacturing,
                       and freeform fabrication.

The definition includes all applications of the technology, including the making of models, patterns, and prototypes for form, fit, and function; mold, die, fixture, and assembly tooling; and custom and limited-edition products, replacement parts, and short-run and series production. Rapid prototyping is the most popular application of AM technology, but it is only one of many.

I hope you can be a part of this change. If you’re uncertain, ask, “Do I want to be a part of the past or a part of the future?” Someone once said that the use of “rapid prototyping” as the generic term is so “1990s,” which is true. Join the 21st century and also consider joining the ASTM F42 standards effort. The group has identified, defined, and approved 28 AM-related terms, but this is only a start. If terminology is not your thing, consider getting involved in one of the other F42 activities. They include the development of standards around test methods, processes, materials, and design (including data/file formats). Retire old habits and help advance the additive manufacturing industry to a new level.

In January, it was announced that Stratasys would manufacture a 3D printer for Hewlett-Packard, a product that would carry the HP brand. The announcement got a lot of attention because few large, well-known companies have entered this business. HP will initially target mechanical designers in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK with the new product. If the roll-out goes well, HP expects to sell the product in other countries.

For many years, industry observers have considered the idea of a large document printer company getting into the 3D printer business. As developed as some additive manufacturing (AM) companies have become, none touch the name recognition or the marketing force of HP, a $114 billion conglomerate.

Will HP’s involvement help grow the market and industry? It certainly should. The company has reach that’s beyond anything else in the AM industry. Will the partnership be successful? I believe there’s a good chance of success, but there’s no guarantee, especially in these uncertain times. It’s difficult to know what might be ahead for any company, large or small.

In March 2001, Xerox Engineering Systems, a subsidiary of Xerox Corp., announced that it had formed a partnership with Z Corp. to promote and sell Z Corp.’s 3D printers in the U.S. One month later, Z Corp. reported that Xerox employees had completed training in the Chicago and Detroit areas and “all systems were go.” A short time later, changes in Xerox upper management caused the deal to unravel.

An estimated 1,200–1,300 injection molding machines shipped in the U.S. in 2009, according to editor Bill Bregar in the December 7, 2009 issue of Plastics News. Contrast this with an estimated 1,886 additive manufacturing (AM) systems sold in 2008 in the U.S. and 5,060 worldwide, according to Wohlers Report 2009. (Figures for the 2009 calendar year are not yet available.)

Undeniably, more AM systems are being sold and installed in the U.S. than injection molding (IM) machines and this came as a surprise to me. I understand clearly that the 1,200–1,300 IM machines are producing far more parts than a greater number of AM systems. However, the AM systems are producing a much larger variety of parts than the IM machines.

What I find most interesting about this is where it might lead U.S. product development and manufacturing in the future. Additive manufacturing is about flexibility and relatively low volumes, while IM is about locking in on a design and producing relatively high volumes. AM permits highly complex shapes and geometric features, even assemblies, in a single build. Fairly complex parts are possible with IM, but cost rises accordingly. AM can product high-value parts without tooling, while most IM parts are relatively low in value with tooling.

What does all of this mean? The U.S. is positioning itself, without even knowing it, to become a producer of low volume, high value, and high margin products. This bodes well for the aerospace, defense, medical, and dental industries where products typically fall squarely into this category. It also presents the opportunity to produce expensive replacement parts for the military, as well as high-margin custom and limited edition products for consumers. China, India, and other countries may eventually follow to some degree, but I believe American creativity, inventiveness, and entrepreneurial spirit will prevail and clinch an advantage in this area of manufacturing.

Progressive, seeking niche markets, doing what few have done before, anticipating the next big thing: These thoughts came to mind as I toured Thogus’ manufacturing facility one month ago. The company president, 34-year old Matt Hlavin, has a knack for discovering what’s new, cool, and effective for his 60-person manufacturing firm. The company’s roots are in plastic injection molding, but it is quickly changing to adjust to recent industry trends and opportunities. For instance, the company has purchased two FDM 400mc machines from Stratasys, allowing it to quickly manufacture thermoplastic parts in volumes that would be difficult or impossible to justify with tooling.

The company is currently running 27 injection-molding presses, but Hlavin believes the company will have as many or more FDM and other additive manufacturing (AM) systems within five years. He believes AM technology is game changing and will have a lasting impact on the way products are developed and manufactured. When I said to him that some companies will send an AM model with their request for a quote (to better communicate the description of the work and potentially lowering the quote), he responded by saying, “We having been sending a AM model with our quotes to those requesting one.” The customer will say, “What’s this?” and a Thogus employee will say, “It’s your part.” So far, they have not lost a job using this approach.

One job involved the redesign and manufacture of a drag chain link for the mining industry. The goal was to reduce weight and complexity of the assembly. The redesign eliminated six parts and reduced weight by 70%. The part was manufactured in PC/ABS using one of the FDM 400mc systems. As the market grows for the product, the company expects to produce tooling and will injection mold it. For now, AM is meeting the need.

About a year ago, entertainer Jay Leno presented the use of laser scanning and 3D printing in a video clip on the Jay Leno’s Garage website. I learned this week that it has become the most popular video on the website. Perhaps it will take celebrities, such as Leno, to help create the awareness that these technologies deserve to become more broadly adopted.

On Tuesday of this week, I listened to inspiring anecdotes from film maker James Cameron, the producer of Avatar, at SolidWorks World 2010 in Anaheim, California. SolidWorks co-founder Jon Hirschtick interviewed him in front of more than 5,000 engineers, designers, and others interested in SolidWorks. I was surprised and glad to hear him say that he uses 3D printing to help bring some of his creations to life. What’s more, he envisions a day when the technology will be used to print parts and products on Mars rather than transporting them from earth. 

I was one of the lucky few to meet Cameron and have a short conversation with him. We talked about 3D printing and he agreed that there’s indeed a future market for an ultra-inexpensive version targeted at children for entertainment. I said to him, “You and I grew up with the Creepy Crawler Thing Maker, but the 21st Century “thing maker” will be an inexpensive 3D printer.” He responded by saying, “Absolutely,” with enthusiasm, although maybe he was only being kind. I gave him my business card, mildly hinting that it’s a project we could work on together, knowing clearly that the odds of it are slim, at best.

I found Cameron to be a nice guy and very down to earth. It’s no secret that he started his career as a machinist. He’s a hands-on guy that fully understands the value of getting your hands dirty and making stuff. During his interview with Hirschtick, he explained how he and his team designed and built a 12.7 kg (28 lb) stereoscopic camera used to shoot much of Avatar. Previous generation stereoscopic cameras were as large and heavy as refrigerators. Cameron surprised many by discussing everything from the use of tools for finite element analysis and computational fluid dynamics to deep sea exploration and space travel.
 
Avatar has received nine Academy Award nominations and broke box office records. Cameron also produced Titanic, the Terminator movies, Rambo: First Blood Part II, Aliens, The Abyss, True Lies, and many television documentaries. It’s good to know that people like Leno and Cameron are not only familiar with 3D printing, but they’re also using it and telling others about it.

The CAD industry has been experiencing a rough period. Installations of CAD solid modeling seats declined by 7.9% in 2008, according to our research. Sales were an estimated 190,000 commercial CAD solid modeling seats in 2007 compared to 175,000 last year. This comes after years of solid growth since 2003 when Wohlers Associates began to track CAD sales worldwide.

Recent figures show that the industry continues to suffer. Seat sales are not yet available for 2009, but revenues from major CAD companies are poor. Autodesk, which is the largest CAD company in the world, reported a 31% drop in its third quarter revenues. Meanwhile, competitors PTC and Dassault reported declines of 18% and 13%, respectively, for Q3. How do these numbers compare to the top providers of additive manufacturing (AM) systems? Stratasys and 3D Systems reported declines of 20.6% and 22.2%, respectively, for Q3.

Last year, the AM industry, as a whole, performed considerably better than the CAD industry, as measured by unit sales. AM machine (unit) sales were up 1% overall, compared to a 7.9% decline in CAD solid modeling seats. This year, however, may be different, with declines in the AM industry that may be on par with the CAD industry. Both will return to healthier levels as the economy improves worldwide and manufacturers see renewed activity from a pent-up demand for new products and services.

Solido (formerly Solid Dimension) has offered a relatively low-cost 3D printer for many years. I first learned about the Israeli company in December 2000 and visited a couple months later. I could tell the system had potential, but the small organization has struggled since then to make a commercial impact. Until recently, few people knew much about the company and even fewer purchased a system.

The company has “pressed the restart button” and is beginning to make an impression. Solido held a press conference last week at EuroMold 2009 in Frankfurt, Germany with attendance like I had never seen at this international trade fair. In the past, the company had little or no presence at this important event, but this year it was different. Solido’s exhibit was large and striking with crowds of people elbowing their way in to see what all the talk was about. The company created a buzz that few anticipated.

So, what has changed at the company? And who is funding the activity? Jason Barzilay purchased the majority of the company some time ago and is serving as its chairman of the board. Barzilay is a founder of Packard Bell, a PC brand that was once popular in the U.S., especially among home users. The company merged with Zenith Data Systems in 1995 to create a PC business worth $4.5 billion, according to Wikipedia. Unlike many company chairs, Barzilay is hands-on and he is also quite vocal. He’s quick to admit that he’s not an expert in additive manufacturing or 3D printing, but has ideas that he believes will propel the company to an unprecedented level.

It’s much too early to know whether Solido will reach the lofty goals and numbers that Barzily has shared with a few people privately, but the company is off to an interesting restart. SolidWorks cofounder Scott Harris and former SolidWorks COO Vic Leventhal are serving on the company’s board and providing guidance to Solido management. Both spoke at the EuroMold press conference. Solido is also hiring experienced and engaging people that are creating a foundation for what’s ahead. If the current level of enthusiasm is present in 12-18 months, I believe the company could turn a once questionable technology and company into something special.