Wohlers Talk

The first time I phoned Autodesk (1983), Mike Ford, the vice president of marketing and sales, answered the phone. That’s how small the company was at the time. Autodesk’s most recent annual revenues were $2.17 billion, making it the largest CAD company in the world. Who would have ever guessed that it would go so far?

Through the 1980s and much of the 1990s, Autodesk was viewed as a “second-class citizen” among its high-end competitors and many of their customers. Their comments would imply that if you wanted to do serious drafting and design work, you’d need expensive software from CADAM, Calma, Computervision, Dassault, or Intergraph running on high-end, proprietary, and expensive hardware. Even in the mid to late 1990s, when personal computers and software products, such as AutoCAD, were becoming quite powerful, they were not seen as real solutions to many.

I recall meeting with an established company in Japan in 1997. The company CEO was seeking advice on the future of design and manufacturing. I was surprised when he would not accept the belief that PCs could power his CAD software in the foreseeable future. He tried to convince me that his company could not do intricate design work using anything less than software running on UNIX workstations. At the time, his company was running hundreds of seats.

It’s been interesting to watch the migration from mainframe computers, to the VAX and MicroVAX, then Apollo, Sun, and HP workstations, and now to PCs. Autodesk strengthened and gained respect each step of the way, especially in the last couple years. It goes to show you that one should never underestimate a small company surrounded by industry giants and expensive products. When complacency sets in, almost anything can happen.

The U.S. has dropped to tenth place worldwide in high school completion, according to the September 2007 issue of Manufacturing Engineering. In 2004, the average annual income for a high school drop out was about $16,500, compared to more than $26,000 for a graduate.

What can be done to reduce the problem? One idea is to offer more opportunities for hands-on activities that engage students. Some kids do not take well to textbooks and lectures. A number of these same students excel with the right conditions. In the May 22 issue of Machine Design, editor Leland Teschler explained that a kid with a 1.9 GPA became a 4.0 student when he began to apply concepts in hands-on courses.

Teschler went on to discuss Project Lead the Way (PLTW), a program that introduces middle and high school students to applied engineering concepts. One PLTW instructor explained that kids have fun because they don’t know they are learning physics, Teschler said. The hands-on, project and problem-based approach adds rigor to technical programs and relevance to traditional academics, the PLTW website states. The Society of Manufacturing Engineers (SME) Education Foundation has partnered with PLTW.

PLTW educators are typically former industrial arts/education instructors and many of them now teach CAD. Some of them are beginning to bring additive fabrication (AF) and 3D printing into their courses, which is a perfect fit. The kids develop skills in conceptual design, modeling, and experimentation and then “print” their work in 3D, giving them a chance to touch, evaluate, and test their designs.

I hope that schools throughout the U.S. adopt AF. It will allow kids that are academically challenged a chance to shine in an area that has a bright future. If it does not lead to an engineering degree, that’s okay. Rewarding careers in AF do not require a four-year engineering degree. Examples are operating AF equipment or finishing parts, selling or servicing AF machines, CAD software, or laser scanning systems, or serving as a sales agent for a service provider. What’s more, these are financially and professionally gratifying positions that are important to the future of the U.S.

Next week, four design/prototyping/manufacturing events are being held simultaneously in Europe and the USA. VRAP 2007 is September 24–29 in Leiria, Portugal. (VRAP stands for Advanced Research in Virtual and Rapid Prototyping.) This every-other-year event, being offered for the third time, draws some of the best academic researchers, as well as a few presentations from private industry. The Portuguese are excellent hosts and do a fine job with this international conference.

TCT 2007 is September 26–27 in Coventry, England and has been running as an annual event for many years. (TCT stands for Time-Compression Technologies.) It is an industrial conference focused exclusively on rapid manufacturing, with a relatively strong exhibition associated with it. The people at Rapid News Publications—the publisher of the European TCT magazine and organizer of the TCT event—are excellent at bringing together a good group of people from the UK and many other countries.

The other two events are in the USA. NDES (also known as National Manufacturing Week) is September 25–27 in Rosemont, Illinois. NDES stands for “National Design Engineering Show” and is organized annually by the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME). The event is not like it once was and has been on “life support” in the recent past. I’ve attended several times, but not over the last few years.

3D Systems World Conference is September 25–27 in Rock Hill, South Carolina. It is a first-year event sponsored and organized by 3D Systems. The event competes with the 3DS Users Group Conference, an annual event organized and conducted by 3D Systems’ customers.

I’m attending the VRAP and TCT events. I’ve been to them in the past and know that they deliver a wide spectrum of views and opinions from top industry and academic leaders. TCT struggled for a few years when it became affiliated with another event organizer, but it is back on track. I’m looking forward to attending both, but wish they were not the same week.

“It’s been said that inventiveness is the source of American wealth,” explained Leland Teschler in his March 8, 2007 column in Machine Design magazine. He went on to say that the National Academy of Sciences (NAS), National Academy of Engineering (NAE), and the National Science Foundation (NSF) concluded that we need more of it.

Ideas have been explored and tried in an effort to “produce” inventors. Teschler believes—and I agree—that some people are born with more natural ability to invent than others. You simply can’t create good inventors.

It is possible, however, to bring out the best in people that have what it takes to invent. History has shown that high-profile prizes can encourage innovation, according to Teschler. He uses the example of Lindbergh’s flight from New York to Paris. It was the $25,000 Orteig Prize that served as the motivation. More recently, Mojave Aerospace Ventures received the $10 million X Prize for launching a private pilot into space.

The Society of Manufacturing Engineers (SME) and a group of volunteers are working together to introduce high school students to the tools and technologies that help you explore new ideas, create, and innovate. The fourth annual Bright Minds Mentor Program, held last week, introduced advances in CAD solid modeling, 3D printing, rapid manufacturing, and laser scanning to 50 Detroit-area students at the RAPID 2007 Conference & Exposition. The program has never offered prizes as an incentive to participate, but it supports NAS, NAE, and NSF’s belief that creating interest in invention starts at the elementary and secondary school levels.

NAS, NAE, and NSF also believe that more scholarships for science and math majors are needed. The Dimension 3D Printing Group, a business unit of Stratasys, recently announced the results of its third annual “Extreme Redesign: The Ultimate 3D Printing Challenge,” a design and 3D printing contest for high school and college students. More than 1,200 designs were entered in the competition. Two first place winners received $2,500 scholarships and four finalists received $1,000 scholarships.

Inventors cannot be created, but there are ways to motivate the naturally gifted to become productive inventors. I truly believe that programs, such as Bright Minds and Extreme Design, are helping. Kudos to SME and Stratasys for serving as the spark that hopefully ignites many fuses among our youth.

I’m not. XP Pro is just fine, thank you. My first in-depth experience with Vista will likely occur when I purchase a new desktop computer. The one at my desk is about three years old, so it may happen in the next year or so. Am I excited about working with a new OS? Not really. 2006 was the first time in 20 years that Wohlers Associates had all of its computers running the same OS. Many years ago, we were running DOS, Windows, Mac, and UNIX—at the same time—and the computers were networked, although not as smoothly as they are today. Life in the office is much better now.

Ralph Grabowski reported in his February 3, 2007 upFront.eZine newsletter that CAD software runs dramatically slower on computers equipped with Vista. Compared to XP, Pro/E runs 6.7x slower, SolidWorks 9x slower, and UGS NX an unbelievable 50x slower. Grabowski goes on to say that the reason for the poor performance is Microsoft’s decision to abandon support of the OpenGL graphics library in Vista. Most CAD software companies use OpenGL, so until they support Microsoft’s Direct3D graphics system, CAD software performance will be horrible.

According Grabowski’s February 10 issue of his newsletter, UGS stated that it plans to support Vista and expects to complete testing later this year. With new graphics drivers, UGS does not anticipate performance to be an issue for NX, Solid Edge, and other UGS products.

In the same newsletter, Grabowski pointed out that OpenGL is only one reason for the terrible performance. Vista’s file system checking takes up valuable resources. Also, he explained that Vista checks all computer hardware 30 times per second to ensure that its digital rights management (DRM) hasn’t been compromised—another reason for its lackluster performance.

In March, Google announced that it had acquired @Last Software, the makers of the popular SketchUp software. At the time, many people—including me—wondered why the search giant bought this small Colorado-based company. As I learned more about the strategy at Google, it began to make sense.

Google’s mission is to organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful. With Google Earth, the company expects to play a dominant role in making companies, sports stadiums, shopping mails, airports—you name it—available on the Internet in 3D graphical form. For instance, suppose you are interested in attending a professional football game in Denver, Colorado. Google Earth would take you to the USA, then to Colorado, and to Invesco Field at Mile High. You could then explore restaurants, retail stores, and so on, and review the products and services at each the businesses in the stadium. Much of it would appear graphically.

Describing the content of the earth is a big job, even for Google. Therefore, the company has decided to solicit the help of others. Anyone with an Internet connection can download the SketchUp software to “sketch up” the structure of a business in 3D. I downloaded the free version a few weeks ago and created basic but interesting 3D buildings within about three minutes. No joke. They could not have made it easier to use. Google hopes that if you want to be found within Google Earth, you will submit a SketchUp model of your business for inclusion.

InformationWeek and CADWire.com published details on the acquisition of @Last Software in March. Both articles provide insight into the business deal between the two companies. If you’re interested in giving SketchUp a try, go to the Google page that permits you to download it. If you’re like me, you’ll find SketchUp impressive and easy to use. Within minutes, you too will be a candidate to help Google fulfill its mission. 

On June 14-15, I attended a press/analyst event at the SolidWorks headquarters in Concord, Massachusetts. Its primary purpose was to offer a preview of SolidWorks 2007. CEO John McEleney and SolidWorks founder and former CEO Jon Hirschtick were on hand to answer questions and provide perspective. I was impressed by the new software:

• Technology called SWIFT has taken ease-of-use to a new level.
• The production of engineering drawings from a solid model could not be easier.
• The COSMOS finite element analysis software is fully integrated into SolidWorks. If you can model a part, apply a force, and click a button, you can now do FEA.
• The ScanTo3D feature imports point cloud data using a simple Wizard interface. (NextEngine and SolidWorks have partnered to provide tight integration between NextEngine’s new $2,500 scanner and SolidWorks 2007. The scanner was on display at the meeting)

The company also discussed its knowledge base of 25,000 solutions to problems that users encounter. Large customers of SolidWorks have reported that 90% of their problems can be handled through this new web-based portal.

One of the highlights of the event (for me) was learning about the Vehicle Design Summit (VDS). It was founded by Anna Jaffe, a student at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is co-directed by her and fellow MIT student Robyn Allen. Its goal is to develop commuter vehicles that would get 500 mpg (213 km/liter). In an enthusiastic presentation, Jaffe explained that 73 student engineers from 13 countries on six continents are participating in the project that began on June 13, 2006. Over a period of nine weeks, they will design—using up to 90 seats of SolidWorks and other tools—four to six cars based on biofuels, hydrogen fuel cells, and solar/human hybrid technology. The plan is then to drive the cars across the USA (from coast to coast) August 13–20, 2006. 

The VDS project is expected to become a permanent international consortium centered on carbon-free green transportation for China, India, and other countries that have quickly-expanding transportation infrastructures. Sponsors include SolidWorks, 3M, Ford, and GM. I applaud Jaffe, Allen, and the other students for their efforts. To learn more about the VDS project, go to http://vehicledesignsummit.org/.

On October 17, 2005, SolidWorks distributed a press release titled “Deep sea diving world record set using breathing regulator designed with SolidWorks software.” Swedish diving equipment manufacturer Poseidon Diving Systems used SolidWorks 3D mechanical design software to develop the breathing regulator that helped set the world record for the deepest individual dive at more than 318.25 meters deep (1,044 feet), according to SolidWorks. My congratulations to South African diver Nuno Gomes who made the plunge in the Red Sea on June 10, as well as to those who were a part of the design of the regulator.

While the regulator design is an impressive achievement, does anyone really believe that if they had used Pro/E, Inventor, or some other CAD solid modeling software, they would not have come up with a similar design? Just as Microsoft Word does not make one a great writer, CAD software does not make one a great designer. It’s a tool. Nothing more, nothing less. (I don’t mean to pick on SolidWorks. Most of its competitors distribute similar types of press releases.)

Once in awhile, a product emerges and sets itself apart from others in its ratio of price to performance. One such product is Rhino, which sells for $895 in the U.S. ($195 for faculty and students). The designs that are possible with Rhino are striking. I got involved with the software when it first rolled out in prerelease form in late 1996. Around that time, I was assisting a manufacturer of footwear products in Brazil with its product development process. The company was about to purchase $30,000 worth of Alias software and hardware, but I persuaded the company to give Rhino a look. The designers in Brazil downloaded and installed a beta version of the software, began to work with it, and were producing sophisticated designs within one week. Alias Studio would have required expensive training and an estimated six months of practice before the company could have reached the same level of productivity. Needless-to-say, the client was ecstatic with the discovery of Rhino. 

Robert McNeel & Associates, the producer of Rhino, has constantly made improvements to the product since it was first introduced. Last year, the company published an STL repair white paper that explains the STL file repair tools that are free in Rhino 3.0 as a part of the Bonus Tools plug-ins. The 53-page paper provides tutorials that step you through what’s available. The tools permit you to display an STL model in wireframe, flat shaded, and smooth shaded views. Also, you can render the model with color, transparency, gloss, and texture, and add backlighting. The tools enable you to reverse surface normals, remove unwanted detail, fill unwanted holes and gaps, show and stitch naked edges, remove unwanted faces, and add thickness to a mesh. 

Don’t let Rhino’s low price fool you. It is a very serious product design tool that is used by thousands of organizations worldwide. If you use STL files for rapid prototyping, consider Rhino’s STL repair capabilities. If you’re unsure, download the fully functional software that allows you to save 25 times. This evaluation version also supports the plug-ins.

“This year will be good for the economy, and 2005 will be better,” said John McEleney, president of SolidWorks Corp., in a article published in the September 16, 2004 issue of Machine Design magazine. McEleney reported that companies are spending more and updating CAD systems to support their launch of new products. If he is right, rapid prototyping (RP) sales should also do well, which is consistent with the forecast published by Wohlers Associates. The RP industry is expected to grow from $529 million in 2003 to $586 million this year, according to Wohlers Report 2004. In 2005, the industry will top $655 million, the report states.

McEleney went on to say that a growing world economy, due to higher prices, mass customization, and a migration from 2D to 3D within design departments will influence growth. Four of five 2D users, he claims, will be using 3D soon. In January 2003, 38% of design data was sent and received in a 3D format, McEleney said. One year later, that number increased to 51%. He did not indicate the types of individuals or organizations that participated in the survey.