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Forecasting the Future

January 28, 2017

Filed under: 3D printing,additive manufacturing,future — Terry Wohlers @ 16:14

Looking ahead is tricky business. Many try, but most can’t do it well. Predicting what might occur in a year from now is one thing, but looking further out, such as years or longer, is difficult. Megatrends author John Naisbitt said, “The most reliable way to forecast the future is to understand the present.” That’s where we put the majority of our energy. We feel that if a company truly understands where things are today, they have a chance at creating a view of the future.

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With history and data points, one can extend trend lines to gain a sense for where something is headed. We have collected and analyzed hard data for more than 20 years for the Wohlers Report, and place a lot of weight on extending trend lines. This, alone, is not enough. We also need to do our best at understanding the present state of 3D printing and additive manufacturing. We adjust our views of the future based on a number of factors, including new developments such as GE’s recent investment of about $1.4 billion in additive manufacturing.

The bottom line: do not make business decisions based entirely on forecasts. Factor in views and opinions from people with a lot of experience and history in the subject of interest. It is easy for someone to make a forecast, even the inexperienced, but it’s incredibly difficult to do it accurately. Most people that read these forecasts do not look back to see if they were accurate, which is a mistake.

Snow

January 14, 2017

Filed under: life — Terry Wohlers @ 07:31

The Rocky Mountains of Colorado have received a staggering amount of snow over the past few weeks. In fact, it’s on pace for its best January snowfall in 100 years. What’s more, it could turn out to be the best month ever. With the snowpack currently at 150% for this time of year, the rivers, lakes, and reservoirs will be at their brim when it melts.

Copper Mountain, our favorite ski resort, yesterday reported 107 cm (42 inches) in the previous seven days. The upper mountain depth is 200 cm (79 inches). Wolf Creek, a ski resort near Pagosa Springs, Colorado, has a mid-mountain depth of a whopping 262 cm (103 inches). Ski resorts and mountain towns are running out of places to put all of the snow.

snowfall

All of the snow comes with consequences. A friend that made a day trip to Vail Mountain this week spent more time driving than skiing. In all, they were in the car nearly nine hours, when the roundtrip should not take more than about five hours.

Some of the same storms brought 51 cm (20 inches) of much needed rain to northern California, ending a horrible five-year drought. The Heavenly Ski Area near Lake Tahoe has received an unthinkable 366 cm (12 feet) of snow.

Overall, recent weeks have been kind to western regions of the U.S. The snow and rain have caused flooding, avalanches, road closures, and other problems, but that goes with the territory. We can only hope for a steady amount of moisture in the coming months.

Best Products of 2016

January 1, 2017

Filed under: review — Terry Wohlers @ 17:24

At this time nearly every year, I like to highlight some of the best products of the year. The following are those that stand out and deserve special recognition.

Jeep Grand Cherokee – We purchased the 2016 75th Anniversary Edition in May, which includes some special features, such as bronze wheels and trim. I like everything associated with this product, and it may be one of the best vehicles we have owned. It now has fewer than 6,435 km (4,000 miles) on it, so it’s probably too soon to draw a final conclusion. The safety features, adaptive cruise control, eight-speed transmission, and overall drivability and comfort make it a great product.

jeep

Logitech HD Pro Webcam C920 – I paid $63 for this excellent device. It rests nicely at the top of my monitor and shoots high-quality 1080p video for saving or use with Skype or other types of broadcasts.

CamelBak Rogue Hydration Pack – This is my first CamelBak product and I like it a lot. I bought it for mountain biking and it’s perfect for half-day trips. It’s a good value at $44.

Black+Decker LST300 Trimmer/Edger – For $63, this battery-powered product is excellent for edging your lawn along the driveway and sidewalk.

Graco Secure Coverage Digital Baby Monitor – If you want to know whether your child or grandchild is awake, it’s a bargain at just $35.

With the exception of the Jeep Grand Cherokee, we purchased all of these products from Amazon. The company’s Prime service is excellent.

Best wishes to you for a great 2017. Happy New Year!