Wohlers Talk

I was sitting at dinner last week in Austin, Texas when the subject of fuel prices came up. Individuals from the UK were present, so we estimated the cost of gasoline in the UK. Our estimate: $9-10 per gallon. One Brit was quick to point out that cars in Europe are much more efficient than those in the U.S., indicating that they often get 40-60 miles per gallon (mpg). In the past, I had wondered if European cars got better mileage, but dismissed the idea. The conversation, however, motivated me to do a little research.

Wikipedia publishes the 2009 UK fuel economy ratings and the 2009 U.S. EPA fuel economy ratings. The mpg for cars sold in the U.S., both foreign and domestic, ranges from a low of 12 to a high of 41 for highway driving. Most cars fell in the range of the mid-teens to the mid-twenties. (It’s interesting to note that the original Ford Model T got 13-21 mpg, according to Wikipedia.) I did not calculate the average mpg because of the number of cars presented in the list.

The 2009 UK fuel economy ratings divided the cars in two groups: 1) 100 cars with the highest fuel economy ratings, and 2) 99 cars with the lowest fuel economy ratings. All of the cars with the best economy run on diesel fuel. These cars range from a low of 66 mpg to a high of 88 mpg for highway driving. The mpg is based on an Imperial gallon, which is about 20% larger than the U.S. gallon. The cars with the worst economy was from about 19 to 29 mpg (also based on an Imperial gallon).

As you can see, the fuel economy of a car with a diesel engine is vastly different than one with a gasoline engine. It is believed that cars with diesel engines are more established in Europe, so this may be one reason for the belief that European cars get better mpg.

The other big difference between Europe and the U.S. is the fleet on the street. According to a March 2007 article titled U.S. vs. Europe in Cars, Gasoline and Energy published by AOL Journals, the U.S. fleet gets about 25 miles per gallon; China about 35 mpg and Europe about 37 mpg. This year, according to the article, automakers are implementing voluntary standards to improve European fuel economy to 44.2 mpg and China to 36.7 mpg. The U.S. will remain at 24.8 mpg.

The first time I phoned Autodesk (1983), Mike Ford, the vice president of marketing and sales, answered the phone. That’s how small the company was at the time. Autodesk’s most recent annual revenues were $2.17 billion, making it the largest CAD company in the world. Who would have ever guessed that it would go so far?

Through the 1980s and much of the 1990s, Autodesk was viewed as a “second-class citizen” among its high-end competitors and many of their customers. Their comments would imply that if you wanted to do serious drafting and design work, you’d need expensive software from CADAM, Calma, Computervision, Dassault, or Intergraph running on high-end, proprietary, and expensive hardware. Even in the mid to late 1990s, when personal computers and software products, such as AutoCAD, were becoming quite powerful, they were not seen as real solutions to many.

I recall meeting with an established company in Japan in 1997. The company CEO was seeking advice on the future of design and manufacturing. I was surprised when he would not accept the belief that PCs could power his CAD software in the foreseeable future. He tried to convince me that his company could not do intricate design work using anything less than software running on UNIX workstations. At the time, his company was running hundreds of seats.

It’s been interesting to watch the migration from mainframe computers, to the VAX and MicroVAX, then Apollo, Sun, and HP workstations, and now to PCs. Autodesk strengthened and gained respect each step of the way, especially in the last couple years. It goes to show you that one should never underestimate a small company surrounded by industry giants and expensive products. When complacency sets in, almost anything can happen.

My wife, daughter, and I visited Costa Rica last week and part of this week. We spent our time in the western half of the country near Playa Hermosa and Lake Arenal. Our previous visit to the country was 11 years ago, so the trip served as a reminder of how much Costa Rica has to offer. The following are facts about the country and its people.

• It takes about 4.5 hours to travel from San Jose to the northwest coast, which is about 300 km (186 miles). A similar distance takes about 2.5 hours on an Interstate highway in the U.S. and 1.5–2 hours on the autobahn in Germany. A main (two-lane) highway stretches across the length of the country from the southeast to the northwest.
• The Eco Lodge Hotel, located near Lake Arenal, was created as a pilot in Latin America using economical development from the World Bank. It was formed to preserve the environment and offer a rich ecotourism program. Eco Lodge kept 218 hectares of primary rain forest as a private reserve and is a pioneer in conservation and eco-friendly adventure sports. We spent three nights at the lodge.
• A community of about 600 Maleku Indians in Costa Rica is working to preserve its tradition, culture, and language. The Eco Lodge has formed a partnership with the Maleku people to help with its efforts.
• Canopy tours by zip line (cables, pulleys, and harnesses) originated in Costa Rica. The Eco Lodge was among the first to offer it. Zip lining has become popular in many regions of the world, including North America and Africa.
• A pure form of Spanish is the primary language throughout much of the country. Relatively few people from Costa Rica can speak English fluently.
• Costa Ricans are friendly and helpful and the country is a safe place, but petty theft (i.e., pick pocketing and car theft) is a problem in many areas.
• More pineapple is exported from Costa Rica than from anywhere else in the world.
• Arenal Volcano is one of the world’s most active. It erupts once every nine minutes, on average, and can be seen and heard from 30 miles away. It is the rainy season in Costa Rica (an understatement), so clouds and fog were frequent, but it cleared for a couple hours while we were near the mountain and we saw impressive activity from the volcano’s spout.
• According to Wikipedia, Costa Rica ranks 5th in the world in the 2008 Environmental Performance Index, up from 15th place in 2006. In 2007 the government of Costa Rica stated that it hopes to be the first country to become carbon neutral by 2021.

Riding Rockets: The Outrageous Tales of a Space Shuttle Astronaut is one of the best books I’ve read in a long time. Mike Mullane chronicles much of his life leading up to his three shuttle missions into space. An engineer friend, Boris Fritz of Northrop Grumman, highly recommended the book. He said, “I picked it up and couldn’t put it down.” Boris and I heard Mullane speak at the Society of Manufacturing Engineers’ RAPID conference in Chicago, Illinois in May 2003. Mullane has appeared on major television shows and is an outstanding motivational speaker, but he is an even better writer.

Nearly every paragraph gripped my attention with fascinating insight and vivid detail. Mullane recounted countless stories from decades ago as if they happened yesterday. He must have kept a log or journal over the years, thinking that he may someday write about his days as an astronaut. Late in the book, he mentioned that he looked forward to writing assignments in school, suggesting that he had aspirations of writing. Most people would not be able to recall enough detail to fill 360 pages. Mullane did it and made it incredibly interesting.

Mullane didn’t hold back much in the book and he had me laughing out loud several times. His story about getting sized for a urine collection device was hilarious. He talked a lot about an astronaut’s life that included enormous highs and lows, saying good bye to his wife, the misery of waiting for a launch, and seemingly endless delays, as well as parties, pranks, and encounters with celebrities. He was brutally candid and not afraid to tell it like was, even if his words offended others. Mullane’s comments emphasized how much astronauts live on the edge and often flirted with death. His remarks on the female astronauts were intriguing. Through much of the book, he criticized NASA management for sharing so little information, deliberately keeping him and other astronauts in the dark for years.

If you’re looking for some very good, entertaining summer reading, get this book. I promise, you won’t want to put it down. And, you don’t need to be an engineer, scientist, or “techie” to enjoy it. I give Riding Rockets five stars.

The U.S. has dropped to tenth place worldwide in high school completion, according to the September 2007 issue of Manufacturing Engineering. In 2004, the average annual income for a high school drop out was about $16,500, compared to more than $26,000 for a graduate.

What can be done to reduce the problem? One idea is to offer more opportunities for hands-on activities that engage students. Some kids do not take well to textbooks and lectures. A number of these same students excel with the right conditions. In the May 22 issue of Machine Design, editor Leland Teschler explained that a kid with a 1.9 GPA became a 4.0 student when he began to apply concepts in hands-on courses.

Teschler went on to discuss Project Lead the Way (PLTW), a program that introduces middle and high school students to applied engineering concepts. One PLTW instructor explained that kids have fun because they don’t know they are learning physics, Teschler said. The hands-on, project and problem-based approach adds rigor to technical programs and relevance to traditional academics, the PLTW website states. The Society of Manufacturing Engineers (SME) Education Foundation has partnered with PLTW.

PLTW educators are typically former industrial arts/education instructors and many of them now teach CAD. Some of them are beginning to bring additive fabrication (AF) and 3D printing into their courses, which is a perfect fit. The kids develop skills in conceptual design, modeling, and experimentation and then “print” their work in 3D, giving them a chance to touch, evaluate, and test their designs.

I hope that schools throughout the U.S. adopt AF. It will allow kids that are academically challenged a chance to shine in an area that has a bright future. If it does not lead to an engineering degree, that’s okay. Rewarding careers in AF do not require a four-year engineering degree. Examples are operating AF equipment or finishing parts, selling or servicing AF machines, CAD software, or laser scanning systems, or serving as a sales agent for a service provider. What’s more, these are financially and professionally gratifying positions that are important to the future of the U.S.

Many years ago, at least one person predicted the use of additive fabrication (AF) to “3D print” household items. If the bread toaster breaks, a new one—or part of one—would be created on the home 3D printer. The convenience and speed would make it compelling.

I disagreed then and I do now. If the toaster breaks, a new one is purchased for $15–20. Even if a person or family owns or has access to a 3D printer, the system would probably not accommodate the type of material needed for the replacement part(s). Also, 3D model data, needed to drive the system, would need to be created or downloaded. This would not be impossible, but few consumers would want to mess with it.

I do believe that home manufacturing will develop in the future and feel more strongly about it now than ever. People that manufacture at home, however, will serve as “providers” that sell to others, primarily on the web. Individuals will see it as a low-risk, low-overhead business opportunity to manufacture from their basement, spare room, garage, or dorm room. They will discover a niche market and serve this market from their home. A few are already doing it.

Case in point: Fabjectory is a one-person company that has been producing models from Second Life, Google SketchUp, and Nintendo Mii for some time. The price for a color model from Fabjectory is typically $50–200. The home-based operation has been written up in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The New York Times, Wired, and other major publications. I am also aware of others here in the U.S. and abroad that are offering part-making services from the comfort of their homes.

The market opportunities are vast. Among them are the production of individualized video game characters, sculptures, corporate gifts, figurines, ornaments, lighting designs, custom furniture, wall hangings, and other home and personal accessories. Add it up and you’re looking at markets that total billions of dollars.

So, don’t be surprised when you begin to see small, specialized manufacturers popping up everywhere. At first, it may appear as though they are operating from a regular business or store front. Upon closer examination, you will find that they are small operations located in homes. And, they will be the manufacturer of the future.

Some of you may recognize his name. Cohen helped pioneer the additive fabrication (AF) industry. At 3D Systems, he was instrumental in the development of the SLA 250, once the most popular AF system in the world. Cohen subsequently co-founded Soligen, a Southern California company that used inkjet printing (3DP) technology from MIT to produce ceramic shells for metal castings. He served as vice president of R&D for years at Soligen.

Cohen is also remembered for launching the Rapid Prototyping Report newsletter, the first publication dedicated to AF technology. Cohen sold the newsletter to CAD/CAM Publishing, who published it for many years.

Cohen worked at the University of Southern California for four years where he invented and led the development of a microfabrication technology called EFAB. (EFAB originally stood for Electrochemical FABrication.) The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) supported Cohen’s work at USC. The effort led to the 1999 spinout of Microfabrica where Cohen currently serves as executive vice president of technology and chief technology officer.

EFAB produces micrometer- and millimeter-scale metal parts, subsystems, and devices with features measured in microns. It deposits two distinct metals—currently a nickel-cobalt alloy and copper—layer by layer onto ceramic wafers. The copper is used as sacrificial support material that is ultimately etched away. Microfabrica has produced fully assembled, functional mechanisms, such as devices with dozens of moving parts that are held together with tiny pin joints.

For 21 years, Cohen has been active in the AF industry and a significant contributor to its development. He and his company are expected to remain busy for some time to come. Microfabrica, Boston University, and Harvard Medical School/Children’s Hospital recently won a $5 million grant from the National Institutes of Health for the development of miniaturized tools for minimally invasive heart surgery.

In January 2008, Tata Motors of India unveiled its $2,500 automobile. It is believed to be the least expensive production car anywhere. The car is expected to reach Indian consumers in October. Click here to see the interior and exterior of this small, no-frills car. According to Wikipedia, the car has a 623 cc rear engine with fuel economy of 22 km per liter (52 mpg) in the city and 26 km per liter (61 mpg) on highways.

Tata Motors announced in March an agreement with Ford Motor Company for the purchase of Jaguar Land Rover. The transfer of ownership is supposed to occur by the end of Q2. At that point, Tata will offer the lowest and some of the highest-priced production cars on the market. The Jaguar XJ series list for $65,000 to $95,000. Click here to see the interior and exterior of this luxury automobile.

It will be interesting to see whether a car company, such as Tata, can handle such breadth in automotive products. The Jaguar Ford “marriage” did not work out, so maybe Tata can do better.

Last week I visited EOS GmbH (Krailling, Germany), a company that manufactures laser-sintering machines for plastics, metals, and foundry sand. By the end of my visit, it became clear to me that EOS is rewriting the rules for metal part fabrication. Conventional methods will not disappear, but a range of metal parts that would otherwise be machined or cast is now being produced using metal laser sintering. The company faces challenges, but it has made a lot of progress in the past few years.

The production of dental restorations using laser sintering is a good example of what is now possible. Dental crowns and bridges are traditionally produced as a custom product for individual patients. The process involves many steps, including the casting of a coping, which serves as the basis for the crown or bridge. Much of the expense is tied to skilled labor that occurs at the dental lab, so streamlining the process can dramatically impact time and cost.

EOS employs an experienced dental lab technician that has helped the company develop a start-to-finish process using its cobalt-chrome material for the copings. Using laser scanning and software products from 3Shape (Copenhagen, Denmark), the process guides the lab technician through the steps of preparing the copings for production on the EOSINT M 270 (metal laser sintering) machine. The data preparation is fast, thanks to the DentalDesigner software from 3Shape. And, the metal copings—380 of them—can be manufactured in 20 hours with little human intervention.

Many dental labs are small “mom ‘n pop” shops with a lot of experience and know-how, but are slow to change. Even so, some labs can see the potential of using laser scanning, good software, and additive fabrication as a competitive weapon. As they adopt the technology, the less progressive companies will have little choice but to also accept it if they want to remain competitive. As they do, the rules of making dental crowns and bridges will change forever.

Can you believe it? Ninety-one percent of our nation’s manufacturing companies were involved in one or more new lawsuits in 2007, according to Fulbright & Jaworski LLP, a law firm in Houston, Texas. The report, published in the January 2008 issue of Manufacturing Engineering, went on to say that 56% of these companies encountered more than 20 new lawsuits in 2007. A depressing 70% of them spend $1 million or more per year on business disputes.

I am in full support of protecting intellectual property and upholding legal contracts. However, many companies have developed a culture of litigation. Rather than considering every possible alternative, companies are quick to throw a team of lawyers at the problem. Once that happens, costs skyrocket and there’s often no end in sight.

What’s it going to take to ease this problem? The money and other company resources that are spent on litigation could be used to design and manufacture better products and improve customer support. If you have ideas, I’d like to hear from you.